🔍 Week in Review
SPX opened the week at 5,770.20 and closed at 5,638.94, losing 131.26 points (-2.27%).
Our Bearish Friday prediction from Wednesday was incorrect. A Bearish prediction requires the price to close lower than Wednesday's level, but it closed higher.
The Neutral Strength prediction was incorrect. A Neutral Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 24.99 points of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
This marks the 14 consecutive weeks where price touched the weekly expected move, continuing an extraordinary streak.
We have not seen any consecutive closes outside the weekly expected move recently.
On the daily timeframe, we've seen 1 consecutive close above the daily expected move, which is worth monitoring as it approaches significance (3+ closes).
📈 Volatility Analysis
Weekly Expected Move for 03/21 is 132.89:
- 3.6% lower than the previous week's expected move of 137.85
- 5.3% higher than the 4-week average of 126.23
- 25.7% higher than the YTD average of 105.73
Daily Expected Move for March 17 is 59.68:
- 5% above the 20-day average of 56.83
- 25% above the YTD average of 47.87
What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 25% above their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to higher volatility regimes rather than truly regaining control
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges higher uncertainty than historical averages would suggest
These conditions often create a temporary stability within an elevated volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the higher expected moves or force a return to historical norms.