🔍 Week in Review
SPX opened the week at 5,638.94 and closed at 5,667.54, gaining 28.60 points (+0.51%).
Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing higher than Wednesday's level.
The Weak Strength prediction was correct, with price staying within 15 handles of Wednesday's close.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Expected Move Touches
We failed to touch expected move this week. We are coming off 14 consecutive weeks where price touched the weekly expected move. This week marks the first time in 15 weeks that price failed to touch the expected move.
Significant Closes
There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
📈 Volatility Analysis
Weekly Expected Move for 03/28 is 108.55:
- 18.3% lower than the previous week's expected move of 132.89
- 13.5% lower than the 4-week average of 125.48
- 2.4% higher than the YTD average of 105.96
Daily Expected Move for March 24 is 66.25:
- 8% above the 20-day average of 61.61
- 36% above the YTD average of 48.55
What This Means for the Market
The current volatility environment shows neither weekly nor daily expected moves expanding significantly, with levels close to YTD averages. This typically indicates:
- Market makers have good control of price action
- Institutional positioning is relatively balanced
- There's a consensus view on market direction and risk
These conditions often reflect a market that has found equilibrium between buyers and sellers across different timeframes.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 49.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread