🔍 Week in Review
SPX opened the week at 5,667.54 and closed at 5,580.94, losing 86.60 points (-1.53%).
Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was incorrect. A Bullish prediction requires the price to close higher than Wednesday's level, but it closed lower.
The Weak Strength prediction was incorrect. A Weak Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 15 handles of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Expected Move Touches
Price has touched the weekly expected move for 1 consecutive week.
Significant Closes
There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
📈 Volatility Analysis
Weekly Expected Move for 04/04 is 142.99:
- 31.7% higher than the previous week's expected move of 108.55
- 9.5% higher than the 4-week average of 130.57
- 31.4% higher than the YTD average of 108.81
Daily Expected Move for March 31 is 70.60:
- 16% above the 20-day average of 60.92
- 46% above the YTD average of 48.47
What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 39% above their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to higher volatility regimes rather than truly regaining control
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges higher uncertainty than historical averages would suggest
These conditions often create a temporary stability within an elevated volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the higher expected moves or force a return to historical norms.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 41.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread