🔍 Week in Review
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Open
5,525.21
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Close
5,686.67
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Weekly Change
↑ 161.46 (+2.92%)
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Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing higher than Wednesday's level.
The Strong Strength prediction was correct, with price closing more than 25 handles from Wednesday's level and 10 handles above the upper expected move.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move has been touched 2 consecutive weeks, indicating consistent volatility within expected parameters.
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Weekly Closes Above Expected Move
Consecutive weeks closing above expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Price has closed above the expected move 2 weeks in a row, suggesting developing bullish momentum exceeding market maker expectations.
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!
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Warning: Historical data shows reversals often follow two or more consecutive breaches.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 05/09
129.90
| Previous Week: |
148.78 |
↓ 12.7% lower |
| 4-Week Avg: |
175.03 |
↓ 25.8% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
136.76 |
↓ 5.0% lower |
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Daily EM 05/05
56.40
| 20-Day Avg: |
99.62 |
↓ 43% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
62.06 |
↓ 9% lower |
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What This Means for the Market
The current volatility environment shows neither weekly nor daily expected moves expanding significantly, with levels close to YTD averages. This typically indicates:
- Market makers have good control of price action
- Institutional positioning is relatively balanced
- There's a consensus view on market direction and risk
These conditions often reflect a market that has found equilibrium between buyers and sellers across different timeframes.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 23.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
