🔍 Week in Review
|
Open
5,659.91
|
Close
5,958.38
|
Weekly Change
↑ 298.47 (+5.27%)
|
|
Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing higher than Wednesday's level.
The Neutral Strength prediction was incorrect. A Neutral Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 24.99 points of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
|
|
|
✓
|
Market insight: Expected move has been touched 1 week in a row, which is normal market behavior. Expected moves are designed to be touched approximately 68% of the time.
|
There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
|
|
📈 Volatility Analysis
|
Weekly EM 05/23
89.13
| Previous Week: |
132.80 |
↓ 32.9% lower |
| 4-Week Avg: |
125.15 |
↓ 28.8% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
134.18 |
↓ 33.6% lower |
|
|
|
Daily EM 05/19
55.00
| 20-Day Avg: |
59.69 |
↓ 8% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
60.97 |
↓ 10% lower |
|
|
What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 22% above their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to higher volatility regimes rather than truly regaining control
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges higher uncertainty than historical averages would suggest
These conditions often create a temporary stability within an elevated volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the higher expected moves or force a return to historical norms.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 18.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
