🔍 Week in Review
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Open
5,802.82
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Close
5,911.69
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Weekly Change
↑ 108.87 (+1.88%)
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Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing higher than Wednesday's level.
The Weak Strength prediction was incorrect. A Weak Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 15 handles of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move has been touched 3 consecutive weeks, an extraordinary streak that suggests market makers are consistently calibrating volatility correctly.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 06/06
106.99
| Previous Week: |
126.43 |
↓ 15.4% lower |
| 4-Week Avg: |
113.84 |
↓ 6.0% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
132.59 |
↓ 19.3% lower |
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Daily EM 06/02
50.17
| 20-Day Avg: |
50.07 |
↑ 0% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
59.77 |
↓ 16% lower |
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What This Means for the Market
The current volatility environment shows neither weekly nor daily expected moves expanding significantly, with levels close to YTD averages. This typically indicates:
- Market makers have good control of price action
- Institutional positioning is relatively balanced
- There's a consensus view on market direction and risk
These conditions often reflect a market that has found equilibrium between buyers and sellers across different timeframes.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 11.50
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
