🔍 Week in Review
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Open
5,967.84
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Close
6,173.13
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Weekly Change
↑ 205.29 (+3.44%)
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Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing higher than Wednesday's level.
The Strong Strength prediction was correct, with price closing more than 25 handles from Wednesday's level and 10 handles above the upper expected move.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move has been touched 1 week in a row, which is normal market behavior. Expected moves are designed to be touched approximately 68% of the time.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 07/04
73.83
| Previous Week: |
115.88 |
↓ 36.3% lower |
| 4-Week Avg: |
102.00 |
↓ 27.6% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
127.88 |
↓ 42.3% lower |
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Daily EM 06/30
38.20
| 20-Day Avg: |
44.70 |
↓ 15% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
57.35 |
↓ 33% lower |
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What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 38% above their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to higher volatility regimes rather than truly regaining control
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges higher uncertainty than historical averages would suggest
These conditions often create a temporary stability within an elevated volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the higher expected moves or force a return to historical norms.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 51.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
