🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,279.35
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Close
6,259.75
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Weekly Change
↓ 19.60 (-0.31%)
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Our Bearish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing within a standard of error of Wednesday close or lower.
The Neutral Strength prediction was correct, with price staying within 25 handles of Wednesday's close.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move was not touched this week. This is unusual as expected moves are designed to be touched 68% of the time.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 07/18
89.32
| Previous Week: |
92.89 |
↓ 3.8% lower |
| 4-Week Avg: |
92.98 |
↓ 3.9% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
125.26 |
↓ 28.7% lower |
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Daily EM 07/14
39.38
| 20-Day Avg: |
40.98 |
↓ 4% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
55.78 |
↓ 29% lower |
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What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 29% above their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to higher volatility regimes rather than truly regaining control
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges higher uncertainty than historical averages would suggest
These conditions often create a temporary stability within an elevated volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the higher expected moves or force a return to historical norms.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 39.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
