🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,296.79
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Close
6,388.64
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Weekly Change
↑ 91.85 (+1.46%)
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Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing higher than Wednesday's level.
The Neutral Strength prediction was incorrect. A Neutral Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 24.99 points of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move has been touched 1 week in a row, which is normal market behavior. Expected moves are designed to be touched approximately 68% of the time.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 08/01
89.99
| Previous Week: |
75.09 |
↑ 19.8% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
86.82 |
↑ 3.6% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
122.41 |
↓ 26.5% lower |
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Daily EM 07/28
29.00
| 20-Day Avg: |
33.35 |
↓ 13% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
54.06 |
↓ 46% lower |
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What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 36% above their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to higher volatility regimes rather than truly regaining control
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges higher uncertainty than historical averages would suggest
These conditions often create a temporary stability within an elevated volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the higher expected moves or force a return to historical norms.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 38.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
