🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,584.29
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Close
6,664.36
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Weekly Change
↑ 80.07 (+1.22%)
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Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing higher than Wednesday's level.
The Strong Strength prediction was incorrect. A Strong Bullish prediction requires the price to close at least 10 handles above the upper expected move AND at least 25 handles higher than Wednesday's close.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move has been touched 2 consecutive weeks, indicating consistent volatility within expected parameters.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 09/26
83.56
| Previous Week: |
94.35 |
↓ 11.4% lower |
| 4-Week Avg: |
86.77 |
↓ 3.7% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
116.28 |
↓ 28.1% lower |
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Daily EM 09/22
33.95
| 20-Day Avg: |
34.72 |
↓ 2% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
50.34 |
↓ 33% lower |
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What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 30% below their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to lower volatility conditions while maintaining tight risk management
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges lower volatility expectations than historical patterns indicate
These conditions often create a temporary stability within a compressed volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the lower expected moves or force a return to historical norms.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 60.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
