🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,664.36
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Close
6,643.70
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Weekly Change
↓ 20.66 (-0.31%)
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Our Bearish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing within a standard of error of Wednesday close or lower.
The Weak Strength prediction was correct, with price staying within 15 handles of Wednesday's close.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move was not touched this week. This is unusual as expected moves are designed to be touched 68% of the time.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 10/03
86.70
| Previous Week: |
83.56 |
↑ 3.8% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
87.71 |
↓ 1.1% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
115.52 |
↓ 24.9% lower |
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Daily EM 09/29
34.26
| 20-Day Avg: |
36.01 |
↓ 5% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
49.87 |
↓ 31% lower |
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What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 28% below their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to lower volatility conditions while maintaining tight risk management
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges lower volatility expectations than historical patterns indicate
These conditions often create a temporary stability within a compressed volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the lower expected moves or force a return to historical norms.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 53.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
