🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,715.79
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Close
6,552.51
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Weekly Change
↓ 163.28 (-2.43%)
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Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was incorrect. A Bullish prediction requires the price to close higher than Wednesday's level, but it closed lower.
The Neutral Strength prediction was incorrect. A Neutral Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 24.99 points of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move has been touched 2 consecutive weeks, indicating consistent volatility within expected parameters.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 10/17
157.14
| Previous Week: |
94.29 |
↑ 66.7% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
105.42 |
↑ 49.1% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
116.02 |
↑ 35.4% higher |
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Daily EM 10/13
80.55
| 20-Day Avg: |
38.88 |
↑ 107% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
49.38 |
↑ 63% higher |
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What This Means for the Market
The consistent expansion of both weekly and daily expected moves, combined with levels significantly above YTD averages, indicates a fundamental shift in market dynamics. This typically occurs when:
- Market makers are losing control of price action and finding themselves on the wrong side of trades
- Institutional players are rapidly adjusting their positioning
- There's genuine uncertainty about market direction that historical models struggle to account for
When expected moves expand across both timeframes while remaining elevated above historical norms, it often signals a market regime change rather than a temporary deviation.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 41.75
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
