🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,728.80
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Close
6,734.13
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Weekly Change
↑ 5.33 (+0.08%)
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Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was incorrect. A Bullish prediction requires the price to close higher than Wednesday's level, but it closed lower.
The Weak Strength prediction was incorrect. A Weak Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 15 handles of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move has been touched 4 consecutive weeks, an extraordinary streak that suggests market makers are consistently calibrating volatility correctly.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 11/21
147.84
| Previous Week: |
123.72 |
↑ 19.5% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
122.35 |
↑ 20.8% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
117.86 |
↑ 25.4% higher |
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Daily EM 11/17
62.47
| 20-Day Avg: |
45.54 |
↑ 37% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
49.33 |
↑ 27% higher |
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What This Means for the Market
The consistent expansion of both weekly and daily expected moves, combined with levels significantly above YTD averages, indicates a fundamental shift in market dynamics. This typically occurs when:
- Market makers are losing control of price action and finding themselves on the wrong side of trades
- Institutional players are rapidly adjusting their positioning
- There's genuine uncertainty about market direction that historical models struggle to account for
When expected moves expand across both timeframes while remaining elevated above historical norms, it often signals a market regime change rather than a temporary deviation.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 21.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
