🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,734.13
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Close
6,602.96
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Weekly Change
↓ 131.17 (-1.95%)
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Our Bearish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing within a standard of error of Wednesday close or lower.
The Strong Strength prediction was incorrect. A Strong Bearish prediction requires the price to close at least 10 handles below the lower expected move AND at least 25 handles lower than Wednesday's close.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move has been touched 5 consecutive weeks, an extraordinary streak that suggests market makers are consistently calibrating volatility correctly.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 11/28
149.36
| Previous Week: |
147.84 |
↑ 1.0% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
131.83 |
↑ 13.3% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
118.53 |
↑ 26.0% higher |
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Daily EM 11/24
75.85
| 20-Day Avg: |
53.75 |
↑ 41% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
49.91 |
↑ 52% higher |
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What This Means for the Market
The divergence between expanding daily and stable weekly expected moves, while both remain significantly above YTD averages, suggests a complex market environment where:
- Different timeframe participants have diverging views on risk
- Market makers have partial control in one timeframe but not the other
- Volatility is being concentrated in specific time horizons
This type of divergence within an elevated volatility regime often precedes a resolution where both timeframes eventually align, either both expanding further or both stabilizing.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 18.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
