🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,849.09
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Close
6,870.40
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Weekly Change
↑ 21.31 (+0.31%)
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Our Bearish Friday prediction from Wednesday was incorrect. A Bearish prediction requires the price to close lower than Wednesday's level, but it closed higher.
The Weak Strength prediction was incorrect. A Weak Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 15 handles of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move was not touched this week. This is unusual as expected moves are designed to be touched 68% of the time.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 12/12
100.35
| Previous Week: |
99.59 |
↑ 0.8% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
124.29 |
↓ 19.3% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
117.77 |
↓ 14.8% lower |
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Daily EM 12/08
33.57
| 20-Day Avg: |
50.49 |
↓ 34% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
49.42 |
↓ 32% lower |
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What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 23% below their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to lower volatility conditions while maintaining tight risk management
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges lower volatility expectations than historical patterns indicate
These conditions often create a temporary stability within a compressed volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the lower expected moves or force a return to historical norms.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 8.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
