🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,870.40
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Close
6,827.38
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Weekly Change
↓ 43.02 (-0.63%)
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Our Bearish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing within a standard of error of Wednesday close or lower.
The Neutral Strength prediction was incorrect. A Neutral Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 24.99 points of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: We have not touched the expected move for 2 consecutive weeks. This is statistically unusual and suggests market makers may be overestimating volatility.
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!
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Warning: Extended periods without EM touches (2+ weeks) often precede volatility expansion as market makers adjust their models.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 12/19
108.20
| Previous Week: |
100.35 |
↑ 7.8% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
114.38 |
↓ 5.4% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
117.58 |
↓ 8.0% lower |
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Daily EM 12/15
41.76
| 20-Day Avg: |
48.66 |
↓ 14% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
49.21 |
↓ 15% lower |
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What This Means for the Market
The current volatility environment shows expected moves in a stable to contracting state, with levels close to YTD averages. This typically indicates:
- Market makers have good control of price action
- Institutional positioning is relatively balanced
- There's a consensus view on market direction and risk
These conditions often reflect a market that has found equilibrium between buyers and sellers across different timeframes.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 63.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
