🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,858.47
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Close
6,966.28
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Weekly Change
↑ 107.81 (+1.57%)
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Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing higher than Wednesday's level.
The Weak Strength prediction was incorrect. A Weak Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 15 handles of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move has been touched 4 consecutive weeks, an extraordinary streak that suggests market makers are consistently calibrating volatility correctly.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 01/16
84.20
| Previous Week: |
82.76 |
↑ 1.7% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
75.38 |
↑ 11.7% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
83.48 |
↑ 0.9% higher |
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Daily EM 01/12
29.58
| 20-Day Avg: |
34.86 |
↓ 15% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
32.89 |
↓ 10% lower |
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What This Means for the Market
The current volatility environment shows expected moves in a stable to contracting state, with levels close to YTD averages. This typically indicates:
- Market makers have good control of price action
- Institutional positioning is relatively balanced
- There's a consensus view on market direction and risk
These conditions often reflect a market that has found equilibrium between buyers and sellers across different timeframes.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 39.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
