🔍 Week in Review
|
Open
6,939.03
|
Close
6,932.30
|
Weekly Change
↓ 6.73 (-0.10%)
|
|
Our Bearish Friday prediction from Wednesday was incorrect. A Bearish prediction requires the price to close lower than Wednesday's level, but it closed higher.
The Strong Strength prediction was incorrect. A Strong Bearish prediction requires the price to close at least 10 handles below the lower expected move AND at least 25 handles lower than Wednesday's close.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
|
|
|
✓
|
Market insight: Expected move has been touched 1 week in a row, which is normal market behavior. Expected moves are designed to be touched approximately 68% of the time.
|
There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
|
|
📈 Volatility Analysis
|
Weekly EM 02/13
119.93
| Previous Week: |
118.10 |
↑ 1.5% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
108.66 |
↑ 10.4% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
100.27 |
↑ 19.6% higher |
|
|
|
Daily EM 02/09
51.51
| 20-Day Avg: |
44.29 |
↑ 16% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
42.15 |
↑ 22% higher |
|
|
What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 21% above their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to higher volatility regimes rather than truly regaining control
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges higher uncertainty than historical averages would suggest
These conditions often create a temporary stability within an elevated volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the higher expected moves or force a return to historical norms.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 21.00
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
