🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,932.30
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Close
6,836.17
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Weekly Change
↓ 96.13 (-1.39%)
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Our Neutral Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price staying within the expected range.
The Weak Strength prediction was incorrect. A Weak Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 15 handles of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move has been touched 2 consecutive weeks, indicating consistent volatility within expected parameters.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 02/20
140.35
| Previous Week: |
119.93 |
↑ 17.0% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
123.36 |
↑ 13.8% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
105.99 |
↑ 32.4% higher |
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Daily EM 02/16
75.53
| 20-Day Avg: |
48.95 |
↑ 54% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
44.11 |
↑ 71% higher |
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What This Means for the Market
The divergence between expanding daily and stable weekly expected moves, while both remain significantly above YTD averages, suggests a complex market environment where:
- Different timeframe participants have diverging views on risk
- Market makers have partial control in one timeframe but not the other
- Volatility is being concentrated in specific time horizons
This type of divergence within an elevated volatility regime often precedes a resolution where both timeframes eventually align, either both expanding further or both stabilizing.
Current SPX-ES Spread: 16.50
Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread
