🔍 Week in Review
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Open
6,909.51
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Close
6,878.88
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Weekly Change
↓ 30.63 (-0.44%)
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Our Bearish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing lower than Wednesday's level.
The Neutral Strength prediction was incorrect. A Neutral Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 24.99 points of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: We have not touched the expected move for 2 consecutive weeks. This is statistically unusual and suggests market makers may be overestimating volatility.
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!
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Warning: Extended periods without EM touches (2+ weeks) often precede volatility expansion as market makers adjust their models.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📊 MEGA0DTE ThinkorSwim Indicator
Updated levels for MEGA0DTE are now available. Load the indicator directly into TOS using this link, which is refreshed every Friday with new closing prices and expected move levels:
Load MEGA0DTE Indicator →
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 03/06
143.20
| Previous Week: |
135.39 |
↑ 5.8% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
134.72 |
↑ 6.3% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
113.39 |
↑ 26.3% higher |
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Daily EM 03/02
67.65
| 20-Day Avg: |
53.80 |
↑ 26% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
46.29 |
↑ 46% higher |
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What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 36% above their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to higher volatility regimes rather than truly regaining control
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges higher uncertainty than historical averages would suggest
These conditions often create a temporary stability within an elevated volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the higher expected moves or force a return to historical norms.
