HOW TO TRADE MEGA0DTE
The best setup we've found is to enter butterflies during power hour the day before expiration. For example: on Tuesday's power hour, we cycle through the tickers, pull up the charts, and ask one question — which ticker is closest to touching its expected move? That's where we place the butterfly for Wed expiration.
We size spreads based on the ticker's behavior:
- Standard tickers → $5 wide minimum
- Higher probability tickers → $7.50 wide
- High volatility tickers (TSLA 👁️) → $10 wide
Example of a $5 wide butterfly:
Buy 1 × $240 Sell 2 × $245 Buy 1 × $250
Pricing discipline is everything — if the butterfly costs more than this, skip it. The risk/reward simply isn't there:
- $5 wide → pay $0.50 or less
- $7.50 wide → pay around $0.70
- $10 wide → pay around $1.00
We tend to do the same dollar amount per trade, always risking the same amount — and also put on one bearish and one bullish on different tickers. This has resulted in a net positive even with one loser.
By always risking the same amount — let's say $200 per trade — you would put on 4× $0.50 BFLYs and 2× $1.00 BFLYs. This allows you to maximize gains by allocating the same risk and reaping the rewards when you hit!
We usually take off half at 150–200% gains and stagger out of the rest. Rarely is anything left to end of day unless it's a total loser.
📈 UNDERSTANDING THE STATS
We finally have enough data to make this meaningful — so starting now, you'll see historical stats next to every ticker on the Mega0DTE page.
Here's what the numbers show:
AAPL — Mon 0% | Wed 50% | Fri 60% → Weekly 67% NVDA — Mon 0% | Wed 33% | Fri 40% → Weekly 50% MSFT — Mon 20% | Wed 33% | Fri 60% → Weekly 83%
Each percentage tells you how often that ticker has touched its expected move on that expiration day. The weekly number shows how often it touched the expected move at least once across the full week.
At the bottom of the page you'll find a breakdown of which expiration days tend to see the most movement — useful for knowing when to be more selective with your entries.
One important note on methodology: we don't use closing prices. We track intraday highs and lows because we do not care where it closes — we care if it hits the level. With butterfly trading, it's all about where price travels during the day, so that's exactly what we measure.
All questions welcome → https://x.com/SPX_Moves 🦋