📊 The Final Tick

🔍 Week in Review

Open 7,165.08 Close 7,230.12 Weekly Change ↑ 65.04 (+0.91%)

Our Bearish Friday prediction from Wednesday was incorrect. A Bearish prediction requires the price to close lower than Wednesday's level, but it closed higher.

The Weak Strength prediction was incorrect. A Weak Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 15 handles of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.

📊 Expected Move Analysis

Consecutive Expected Move Touches Weeks in a row hitting expected move 00 ↘ ✓ Market insight: We have not touched the expected move for 2 consecutive weeks. This is statistically unusual and suggests market makers may be overestimating volatility. ! Warning: Extended periods without EM touches (2+ weeks) often precede volatility expansion as market makers adjust their models. There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.

📈 Current SPX-ES Spread: 27.50 Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread

📊 MEGA0DTE Weekly Scorecard

Week of 05/01 — Expected Move Breaches 1 Upper breach 1 Lower breach 6 No breach AAPL — Held NVDA — Held TSLA — Held MSFT — Held GOOGL ▲ Upper META ▼ Lower AMZN — Held AVGO — Held ■ Breached upper EM   ■ Breached lower EM   ■ Within range Load MEGA0DTE indicator in ThinkorSwim Levels refreshed Friday close — new EM ranges inside Load indicator →

📅 Upcoming Earnings

Week of May 4 — 16 reports scheduled Consumer discretionary ABNB DKNG MCD WYNN Financials PYPL Health care PFE TEM Information technology ALAB AMD APP DDOG MSTR NET SHOP SMCI Other COIN Full schedule + expected moves Dates, times & EM levels for all 16 View schedule → Plot levels in ThinkorSwim Load earnings EM on your chart Load indicator →

📈 Volatility Analysis

Weekly EM 05/08 109.57 Previous Week: 129.42 ↓ 15.3% lower 4-Week Avg: 118.16 ↓ 7.3% lower YTD Avg: 138.50 ↓ 20.9% lower

Daily EM 05/04 50.48 20-Day Avg: 49.40 ↑ 2% higher YTD Avg: 55.38 ↓ 9% lower

What This Means for the Market

The current volatility environment shows expected moves in a stable to contracting state, with levels close to YTD averages. This typically indicates:

• Market makers have good control of price action
• Institutional positioning is relatively balanced
• There's a consensus view on market direction and risk

These conditions often reflect a market that has found equilibrium between buyers and sellers across different timeframes.