📊 The Final Tick

🔍 Week in Review

Open 7,482.71 Close 7,575.30 Weekly Change ↑ 92.59 (+1.24%)

Our Neutral Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price staying within the expected range.

The Neutral Strength prediction was correct, with price staying within 25 handles of Wednesday's close.

📊 Expected Move Analysis

Consecutive Expected Move Touches Weeks in a row hitting expected move 04 ↗ ✓ Market insight: Expected move has been touched 4 consecutive weeks, an extraordinary streak that suggests market makers are consistently calibrating volatility correctly. There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.

📈 Current SPX-ES Spread: 46.00 Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread

📊 MEGA0DTE Weekly Scorecard

Week of 07/10 — Expected Move Breaches 3 Upper breach 0 Lower breach 5 No breach AAPL — Held NVDA ▲ Upper TSLA — Held MSFT — Held GOOGL — Held META ▲ Upper AMZN — Held AVGO ▲ Upper ■ Breached upper EM   ■ Breached lower EM   ■ Within range Load MEGA0DTE indicator in ThinkorSwim Levels refreshed Friday close — new EM ranges inside Load indicator →

📅 Upcoming Earnings

Week of July 12 — 7 reports scheduled Communication services NFLX Financials C JPM Health care UNH Industrials UAL Information technology ASML TSM Full schedule + expected moves Dates, times & EM levels for all 7 View schedule → Plot levels in ThinkorSwim Load earnings EM on your chart Load indicator →

📈 Volatility Analysis

Weekly EM 07/17 86.09 Previous Week: 104.12 ↓ 17.3% lower 4-Week Avg: 109.90 ↓ 21.7% lower YTD Avg: 132.14 ↓ 34.9% lower

Daily EM 07/13 37.82 20-Day Avg: 55.36 ↓ 32% lower YTD Avg: 54.38 ↓ 30% lower

What This Means for the Market

The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 33% below their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.

• Market makers have adapted to lower volatility conditions while maintaining tight risk management
• Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
• The consensus view acknowledges lower volatility expectations than historical patterns indicate

These conditions often create a temporary stability within a compressed volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the lower expected moves or force a return to historical norms.