📊 The Final Tick

🔍 Week in Review

Open 7,575.30 Close 7,457.69 Weekly Change ↓ 117.61 (-1.55%)

Our Bearish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing lower than Wednesday's level.

The Neutral Strength prediction was incorrect. A Neutral Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 24.99 points of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.

📊 Expected Move Analysis

Consecutive Expected Move Touches Weeks in a row hitting expected move 05 ↗ ✓ Market insight: Expected move has been touched 5 consecutive weeks, an extraordinary streak that suggests market makers are consistently calibrating volatility correctly. Daily Closes Below Expected Move Consecutive days closing below expected move 02 ↘ ✓ Market insight: Price has closed below the expected move 2 days in a row, suggesting developing bearish momentum exceeding market maker expectations. ! Warning: Historical data shows reversals often follow two or more consecutive breaches.

📈 Current SPX-ES Spread: 40.00 Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread

📊 MEGA0DTE Weekly Scorecard

Week of 07/17 — Expected Move Breaches 0 Upper breach 2 Lower breach 9 No breach AAPL — Held NVDA — Held MSFT — Held META — Held AMZN — Held AVGO — Held AMD — Held INTC — Held MU ▼ Lower XLF — Held SMH ▼ Lower ■ Breached upper EM   ■ Breached lower EM   ■ Within range △ Earnings caution: Avoid MEGA0DTE setups on GOOGL and TSLA next week — earnings expected moves override standard EM levels and invalidate the setup. Load MEGA0DTE indicator in ThinkorSwim Levels refreshed Friday close — new EM ranges inside Load indicator →

📅 Upcoming Earnings

Week of July 18 — 9 reports scheduled Communication services GOOGL Consumer discretionary DECK LVS TSLA Financials AXP BX SCHW Industrials HON Materials NEM Full schedule + expected moves Dates, times & EM levels for all 9 View schedule → Plot levels in ThinkorSwim Load earnings EM on your chart Load indicator →

📈 Volatility Analysis

Weekly EM 07/24 132.41 Previous Week: 86.09 ↑ 53.8% higher 4-Week Avg: 112.26 ↑ 17.9% higher YTD Avg: 132.15 ↑ 0.2% higher

Daily EM 07/20 61.72 20-Day Avg: 50.98 ↑ 21% higher YTD Avg: 54.13 ↑ 14% higher

What This Means for the Market

The current volatility environment shows expected moves in a stable to contracting state, with levels close to YTD averages. This typically indicates:

• Market makers have good control of price action
• Institutional positioning is relatively balanced
• There's a consensus view on market direction and risk

These conditions often reflect a market that has found equilibrium between buyers and sellers across different timeframes.