📊 The Final Tick

🔍 Week in Review

Open 7,457.69 Close 7,411.96 Weekly Change ↓ 45.73 (-0.61%)

Our Bullish Friday prediction from Wednesday was incorrect. A Bullish prediction requires the price to close higher than Wednesday's level, but it closed lower.

The Weak Strength prediction was incorrect. A Weak Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 15 handles of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.

📊 Expected Move Analysis

Consecutive Expected Move Touches Weeks in a row hitting expected move 00 ↘ ✓ Market insight: Expected move was not touched this week. This is unusual as expected moves are designed to be touched 68% of the time. There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.

📈 Current SPX-ES Spread: 36.00 Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread

📊 MEGA0DTE Weekly Scorecard

Week of 07/24 — Expected Move Breaches 4 Upper breach 5 Lower breach 4 No breach AAPL ▼ Lower NVDA ▲ Upper TSLA ▼ Lower MSFT — Held GOOGL ▼ Lower META ▼ Lower AMZN ▼ Lower AVGO ▲ Upper AMD ▲ Upper INTC — Held MU ▲ Upper XLF — Held SMH — Held ■ Breached upper EM   ■ Breached lower EM   ■ Within range △ Earnings caution: Avoid MEGA0DTE setups on AAPL and AMZN and META and MSFT next week — earnings expected moves override standard EM levels and invalidate the setup. Load MEGA0DTE indicator in ThinkorSwim Levels refreshed Friday close — new EM ranges inside Load indicator →

📅 Upcoming Earnings

Week of July 24 — 19 reports scheduled Communication services META RDDT Consumer discretionary AMZN CVNA RCL Energy ENPH FSLR XOM Financials HOOD PYPL V Health care TEM Industrials CAR UPS Information technology AAPL LRCX MSFT MSTR Other COIN Full schedule + expected moves Dates, times & EM levels for all 19 View schedule → Plot levels in ThinkorSwim Load earnings EM on your chart Load indicator →

📈 Volatility Analysis

Weekly EM 07/31 143.04 Previous Week: 132.41 ↑ 8.0% higher 4-Week Avg: 116.42 ↑ 22.9% higher YTD Avg: 132.52 ↑ 7.9% higher

Daily EM 07/27 58.82 20-Day Avg: 47.80 ↑ 23% higher YTD Avg: 53.95 ↑ 9% higher

What This Means for the Market

The expansion of weekly expected move while daily expected move remains stable suggests longer-term uncertainty developing within day-to-day stability. This pattern often emerges when:

• Market participants are becoming concerned about longer-term risks but remain comfortable with short-term price action
• Institutional positioning is shifting focus to weekly/monthly options rather than daily
• There's an upcoming significant event that hasn't yet affected daily trading

This divergence typically indicates a market that's beginning to price in future uncertainty while maintaining current stability.