🔍 Week in Review
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Open
7,785.76
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Close
7,674.37
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Weekly Change
↓ 111.39 (-1.43%)
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Our Bearish Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price closing within a standard of error of Wednesday close or lower.
The Neutral Strength prediction was incorrect. A Neutral Strength prediction requires the price to stay within 24.99 points of Wednesday's close, but it moved more than that.
📊 Expected Move Analysis
Consecutive Expected Move Touches
Weeks in a row hitting expected move
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✓
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Market insight: Expected move has been touched 1 week in a row, which is normal market behavior. Expected moves are designed to be touched approximately 68% of the time.
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There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.
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📊 MEGA0DTE Weekly Scorecard
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Week of 08/21 — Expected Move Breaches
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3
Upper breach
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8
Lower breach
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2
No breach
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■ Breached upper EM ■ Breached lower EM ■ Within range
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⚡ $META moved 2.5x its expected move this week (▼ lower breach)
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| △ Earnings caution: Avoid MEGA0DTE setups on NVDA next week — earnings expected moves override standard EM levels and invalidate the setup. |
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Load MEGA0DTE indicator in ThinkorSwim
Levels refreshed Friday close — new EM ranges inside
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Load indicator → |
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📅 Upcoming Earnings
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Week of August 21 — 8 reports scheduled
Consumer discretionary
Information technology
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Full schedule + expected moves
Dates, times & EM levels for all 8
View schedule → |
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Plot levels in ThinkorSwim
Load earnings EM on your chart
Load indicator → |
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📈 Volatility Analysis
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Weekly EM 08/28
103.42
| Previous Week: |
83.55 |
↑ 23.8% higher |
| 4-Week Avg: |
97.82 |
↑ 5.7% higher |
| YTD Avg: |
128.43 |
↓ 19.5% lower |
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Daily EM 08/24
38.17
| 20-Day Avg: |
43.62 |
↓ 12% lower |
| YTD Avg: |
52.66 |
↓ 28% lower |
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What This Means for the Market
The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 23% below their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.
- Market makers have adapted to lower volatility conditions while maintaining tight risk management
- Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
- The consensus view acknowledges lower volatility expectations than historical patterns indicate
These conditions often create a temporary stability within a compressed volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the lower expected moves or force a return to historical norms.
