📊 The Final Tick

🔍 Week in Review

Open 7,674.37 Close 7,711.48 Weekly Change ↑ 37.11 (+0.48%)

Our Neutral Friday prediction from Wednesday was correct, with price staying within the expected range.

The Weak Strength prediction was correct, with price staying within 15 handles of Wednesday's close.

📊 Expected Move Analysis

Consecutive Expected Move Touches Weeks in a row hitting expected move 00 ↘ ✓ Market insight: Expected move was not touched this week. This is unusual as expected moves are designed to be touched 68% of the time. There are no significant consecutive closes in either the weekly or daily timeframe.

📈 Current SPX-ES Spread: 12.00 Please update your trading indicators accordingly with the new spread

📊 MEGA0DTE Weekly Scorecard

Week of 08/28 — Expected Move Breaches 1 Upper breach 1 Lower breach 11 No breach AAPL — Held NVDA — Held TSLA ▲ Upper MSFT — Held GOOGL ▼ Lower META — Held AMZN — Held AVGO — Held AMD — Held INTC — Held MU — Held XLF — Held SMH — Held ■ Breached upper EM   ■ Breached lower EM   ■ Within range △ Earnings caution: Avoid MEGA0DTE setups on AVGO next week — earnings expected moves override standard EM levels and invalidate the setup. Load MEGA0DTE indicator in ThinkorSwim Levels refreshed Friday close — new EM ranges inside Load indicator →

📅 Upcoming Earnings

Week of August 31 — 7 reports scheduled Consumer discretionary LULU Information technology DELL DOCU MDB PANW SNOW Other AVGO Full schedule + expected moves Dates, times & EM levels for all 7 View schedule → Plot levels in ThinkorSwim Load earnings EM on your chart Load indicator →

📈 Volatility Analysis

Weekly EM 09/04 91.51 Previous Week: 103.42 ↓ 11.5% lower 4-Week Avg: 94.67 ↓ 3.3% lower YTD Avg: 127.38 ↓ 28.2% lower

Daily EM 08/31 37.33 20-Day Avg: 39.83 ↓ 6% lower YTD Avg: 52.19 ↓ 28% lower

What This Means for the Market

The recent stabilization of expected moves represents a short-term equilibrium, but this is occurring within a fundamentally altered volatility landscape. With both weekly and daily expected moves remaining approximately 28% below their YTD averages, the market has established a new baseline rather than returning to historical norms.

• Market makers have adapted to lower volatility conditions while maintaining tight risk management
• Institutional positioning has adjusted to accommodate the new normal
• The consensus view acknowledges lower volatility expectations than historical patterns indicate

These conditions often create a temporary stability within a compressed volatility environment, which can persist until catalysts emerge to either justify the lower expected moves or force a return to historical norms.