Iran Hits A Qatari Gas Tanker In The Strait

Iran's IRGC fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz overnight, per WSJ and Axios citing a US official. Two ships took significant damage, no casualties. One appears to be Al Rekayyat, an LNG tanker owned and managed by Nakilat, the shipping arm of Qatar's LNG industry, struck on its port side near the mouth of the strait. UKMTO had flagged a tanker hit by an "unknown projectile" off Oman. The strike follows indirect US-Iran talks in Doha that ended without public signs of headway. Sources: WSJ, Axios (via Times of Israel liveblog), CBS News

This doesn't revive the oil-price leg — cumulative supply reintegration (Saudi OSP cut, OPEC+ increases, sanctioned barrels returning) still dominates the crude price, which is falling. What it keeps alive is the structural-damage channel: war-risk insurance premiums, tanker rerouting via Oman, and transit volumes stuck far below the pre-war ~130/day. Iran is demonstrating it can throttle the waterway at will as leverage in the toll negotiation, regardless of the diplomatic track. The tail risk this preserves is a vol shock — a strike that hits cargo or causes a spill could jolt a complacent market that has stopped pricing the strait.