FOMC vs SPX Expected Move
13 of 17 events completed · 3 meetings, 3 minutes exceeded the expected move
MEETINGS EXCEEDING EM
3 of 7
43% beat the expected move
MINUTES EXCEEDING EM
3 of 6
50% beat the expected move
EVENTS COMPLETED
13 of 17
avg EM $48.20 · avg move $56.08
All FOMC Events — 2026
| Event | Pre close | EM | Post close | Actual | vs EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC · Jan 28 | $6,978.60 | $36.64 | $6,978.03 | −$0.57 | 0.02x |
| Minutes · Feb 18 | $6,843.22 | $54.52 | $6,881.31 | +$38.09 | 0.70x |
| FOMC · Mar 18 | $6,716.09 | $57.93 | $6,624.70 | −$91.39 | 1.58x |
| Minutes · Apr 8 | $6,616.85 | $59.45 | $6,782.81 | +$165.96 | 2.79x |
| FOMC · Apr 28 | $7,173.91 | $39.76 | $7,138.80 | −$35.11 | 0.88x |
| Minutes · May 19 | $7,403.01 | $45.93 | $7,353.61 | −$49.40 | 1.08x |
| FOMC · Jun 17 | $7,511.35 | $55.05 | $7,420.10 | −$91.25 | 1.66x |
| Minutes · Jul 8 | $7,503.85 | $40.92 | $7,482.58 | −$21.27 | 0.52x |
| FOMC · Jul 29 | $7,428.78 | $58.27 | $7,316.15 | −$112.63 | 1.93x |
| Minutes · Aug 18 | $7,745.06 | $32.21 | $7,691.97 | −$53.09 | 1.65x |
| Jackson Hole · Aug 28 | $7,730.79 | $44.14 | $7,711.48 | −$19.31 | 0.44x |
| FOMC · Sep 16 | $7,586.03 | $65.96 | $7,552.25 | −$33.78 | 0.51x |
| Minutes · Oct 7 | $7,818.93 | $35.86 | $7,801.77 | −$17.16 | 0.48x |
| FOMC · Oct 28 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Minutes · Nov 18 | — | — | — | — | — |
| FOMC · Dec 9 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Minutes · Dec 30 | — | — | — | — | — |
Past Years
Every completed year has its own citable URL. Numbers are frozen historical results — deterministically recomputed from the immutable SPX daily closes and expected-move values published before each Fed event.