Treasury's Own Draft Warns Of An AI Bubble

NOTUS reports that a draft U.S. Treasury report warns the AI boom could resemble the dot-com bubble. The draft reportedly says AI companies are deeply embedded in the economy, raising the risk that weaker financial conditions or slower growth could trigger broader fallout if the sector turns lower. Treasury told NOTUS the draft was not vetted and does not represent official Treasury policy.

This is institutional confirmation, not new analysis. The framework has argued for months that AI spending is running ahead of AI revenue, and that the risk is not just to tech stocks but to the wider economy through debt financing, private credit, utilities, chips, cloud providers, and hyperscaler capex. The value of a government risk memo is not that it is early — it is late. It means policymakers are now modeling the unwind.