CPI vs SPX Expected Move — 2025

Every scheduled Consumer Price Index release in 2025 with the S&P 500 close-to-close reaction against the expected move published the day before. Frozen historical results.

CPI RELEASES EXCEEDING EM

5 of 11

45% beat the expected move

AVG EXPECTED MOVE

$60.34

across 11 completed releases

AVG ACTUAL MOVE

$59.87

11 of 11 events · 0.94x avg coverage

How to read this table. Each row is one scheduled Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. EM is the expected move published before the release. Actual is the close-to-close change (release-day close minus prior trading day close). The vs EM column shows how far the move reached: a red marker + red ratio means the move met or exceeded the expected move (abs(actual) >= EM) — that's the notable event.

All CPI Releases — 2025

Release	Pre close	EM	Post close	Actual	vs EM
CPI · Jan 15	$5,842.01	$65.01	$5,949.91	+$107.90	1.66x
CPI · Feb 12	$6,068.50	$41.64	$6,051.97	−$16.53	0.40x
CPI · Mar 12	$5,572.06	$82.99	$5,599.30	+$27.24	0.33x
CPI · Apr 10	$5,456.90	$132.85	$5,268.05	−$188.85	1.42x
CPI · May 13	$5,844.17	$53.05	$5,886.55	+$42.38	0.80x
CPI · Jun 11	$6,038.81	$47.46	$6,022.24	−$16.57	0.35x
CPI · Jul 15	$6,268.56	$38.68	$6,243.76	−$24.80	0.64x
CPI · Aug 12	$6,373.45	$57.63	$6,445.76	+$72.31	1.25x
CPI · Sep 11	$6,532.05	$41.23	$6,587.47	+$55.42	1.34x
CPI · Oct 24	$6,738.44	$45.58	$6,791.69	+$53.25	1.17x
CPI · Dec 18	$6,721.43	$57.67	$6,774.76	+$53.33	0.92x

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