SPX Expected Move Today — October 12, 2026 (Next Session)
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How the Daily SPX Expected Move Is Calculated
The expected move is the range the S&P 500 is statistically likely to trade within during the next session. It is derived from options pricing — specifically, the cost of the at-the-money straddle (buying both a call and a put at the same strike). That straddle price represents the market's consensus on how much SPX will move before those options expire.
Because the straddle reflects implied volatility priced in by market makers and institutional traders, the expected move corresponds roughly to one standard deviation. In a normal distribution, about 68% of outcomes fall within one standard deviation — so SPX is expected to close inside the range roughly two out of every three sessions.
Traders use the expected move to gauge whether options are cheap or expensive, set strike prices for credit spreads, and identify sessions where a breach (close outside the range) signals an inefficient market. Consecutive breaches in the same direction often mean the market is mispricing near-term volatility, creating opportunities for directional trades or wider-wing strategies.
Recent Accuracy
SPX has closed within the daily expected move 62.5% of the time across 459 tracked sessions.
| Date | EM Range | Actual Close | Within EM? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | 7,725 – 7,806 | 7,811.54 | ❌ No (Above) |
| Oct 8 | 7,768 – 7,835 | 7,765.47 | ❌ No (Below) |
| Oct 7 | 7,783 – 7,855 | 7,801.77 | ✅ Yes |
| Oct 6 | 7,738 – 7,810 | 7,818.93 | ✅ Yes |
| Oct 5 | 7,680 – 7,765 | 7,774.06 | ❌ No (Above) |