FOMC 2025 — SPX vs Expected Move
17 of 17 events completed · 3 meetings, 4 minutes exceeded the expected move
MEETINGS EXCEEDING EM
3 of 9
33% beat the expected move
MINUTES EXCEEDING EM
4 of 8
50% beat the expected move
EVENTS COMPLETED
17 of 17
avg EM $54.02 · avg move $56.62
abs(actual) >= EM) — that's the notable event.
All FOMC Events — 2025
| Event | Pre close | EM | Post close | Actual | vs EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOMC · Jan 29 | $6,067.70 | $40.86 | $6,039.31 | −$28.39 | 0.69x |
| Minutes · Feb 19 | $6,129.58 | $28.08 | $6,144.15 | +$14.57 | 0.52x |
| FOMC · Mar 19 | $5,614.66 | $60.62 | $5,675.29 | +$60.63 | 1.00x |
| Minutes · Apr 9 | $4,982.77 | $181.12 | $5,456.90 | +$474.13 | 2.62x |
| FOMC · May 7 | $5,606.91 | $64.25 | $5,631.28 | +$24.37 | 0.38x |
| Minutes · May 28 | $5,921.54 | $38.08 | $5,888.55 | −$32.99 | 0.87x |
| FOMC · Jun 18 | $5,982.72 | $67.61 | $5,980.87 | −$1.85 | 0.03x |
| Minutes · Jul 9 | $6,225.52 | $32.52 | $6,263.26 | +$37.74 | 1.16x |
| FOMC · Jul 30 | $6,370.86 | $40.00 | $6,362.90 | −$7.96 | 0.20x |
| Minutes · Aug 20 | $6,411.37 | $31.68 | $6,395.78 | −$15.59 | 0.49x |
| Jackson Hole · Aug 22 | $6,370.17 | $57.31 | $6,466.91 | +$96.74 | 1.69x |
| FOMC · Sep 17 | $6,606.76 | $52.07 | $6,600.42 | −$6.34 | 0.12x |
| Minutes · Oct 8 | $6,714.59 | $37.25 | $6,753.72 | +$39.13 | 1.05x |
| FOMC · Oct 29 | $6,890.89 | $41.20 | $6,890.59 | −$0.30 | 0.01x |
| Minutes · Nov 19 | $6,617.33 | $67.18 | $6,642.18 | +$24.85 | 0.37x |
| FOMC · Dec 10 | $6,840.51 | $45.98 | $6,886.80 | +$46.29 | 1.01x |
| Minutes · Dec 31 | $6,896.24 | $32.47 | $6,845.50 | −$50.74 | 1.56x |
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