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SPX Expected Move History & Accuracy

395
Sessions Tracked
63.3%
Closed Within EM
±50.2
Avg Daily EM (pts)
293.01 pts
Largest Breach
Apr 9, 2025

How accurate is the expected move? This table tracks every daily SPX expected move against the actual close. A session is "within EM" when the close stays between the upper and lower bounds.

← See today's SPX expected move

Session Date EM Range ± Points Actual Close Result
Jul 10, 2026 7,505 – 7,582 ±38.2 7,575.30 ✅ Within
Jul 9, 2026 7,437 – 7,528 ±45.7 7,543.64 🔴 Above
Jul 8, 2026 7,463 – 7,545 ±40.9 7,482.58 ✅ Within
Jul 7, 2026 7,505 – 7,570 ±32.8 7,503.85 🔴 Below
Jul 6, 2026 7,435 – 7,531 ±47.9 7,537.42 🔴 Above
Jul 2, 2026 7,411 – 7,555 ±71.8 7,482.71 ✅ Within
Jul 1, 2026 7,457 – 7,542 ±42.4 7,483.23 ✅ Within
Jun 30, 2026 7,390 – 7,490 ±50.1 7,499.36 🔴 Above
Jun 29, 2026 7,288 – 7,420 ±65.9 7,440.25 🔴 Above
Jun 26, 2026 7,289 – 7,426 ±68.7 7,354.02 ✅ Within
Jun 25, 2026 7,299 – 7,418 ±59.4 7,357.49 ✅ Within
Jun 24, 2026 7,306 – 7,425 ±59.7 7,358.22 ✅ Within
Jun 23, 2026 7,412 – 7,534 ±60.7 7,365.48 🔴 Below
Jun 22, 2026 7,441 – 7,560 ±59.8 7,472.79 ✅ Within
Jun 18, 2026 7,347 – 7,494 ±73.6 7,500.61 🔴 Above
Jun 17, 2026 7,456 – 7,566 ±55.1 7,420.10 🔴 Below
Jun 16, 2026 7,507 – 7,602 ±47.5 7,511.35 ✅ Within
Jun 15, 2026 7,359 – 7,503 ±72.1 7,554.54 🔴 Above
Jun 12, 2026 7,317 – 7,471 ±77.1 7,431.39 ✅ Within
Jun 11, 2026 7,181 – 7,354 ±86.6 7,393.98 🔴 Above
Jun 10, 2026 7,310 – 7,463 ±76.3 7,267.58 🔴 Below
Jun 9, 2026 7,349 – 7,462 ±56.4 7,386.35 ✅ Within
Jun 8, 2026 7,295 – 7,473 ±89.1 7,405.49 ✅ Within
Jun 5, 2026 7,524 – 7,645 ±60.8 7,383.83 🔴 Below
Jun 4, 2026 7,512 – 7,596 ±42.2 7,584.31 ✅ Within
Jun 3, 2026 7,575 – 7,645 ±34.8 7,553.68 🔴 Below
Jun 2, 2026 7,563 – 7,637 ±36.8 7,609.78 ✅ Within
Jun 1, 2026 7,533 – 7,627 ±46.8 7,599.97 ✅ Within
May 29, 2026 7,524 – 7,603 ±39.3 7,580.06 ✅ Within
May 28, 2026 7,482 – 7,559 ±38.5 7,563.63 🔴 Above
May 27, 2026 7,478 – 7,561 ±41.2 7,520.49 ✅ Within
May 26, 2026 7,409 – 7,537 ±64.0 7,519.41 ✅ Within
May 22, 2026 7,394 – 7,498 ±51.9 7,473.45 ✅ Within
May 21, 2026 7,372 – 7,493 ±60.5 7,445.72 ✅ Within
May 20, 2026 7,306 – 7,401 ±47.7 7,432.85 🔴 Above
May 19, 2026 7,357 – 7,449 ±45.9 7,353.61 🔴 Below
May 18, 2026 7,347 – 7,470 ±61.1 7,403.01 ✅ Within
May 15, 2026 7,458 – 7,545 ±43.7 7,408.50 🔴 Below
May 14, 2026 7,401 – 7,488 ±43.7 7,501.24 🔴 Above
May 13, 2026 7,361 – 7,441 ±39.7 7,444.26 🔴 Above
May 12, 2026 7,371 – 7,454 ±41.4 7,401.05 ✅ Within
May 11, 2026 7,353 – 7,445 ±46.0 7,412.89 ✅ Within
May 8, 2026 7,291 – 7,383 ±46.0 7,398.88 🔴 Above
May 7, 2026 7,323 – 7,407 ±42.3 7,337.11 ✅ Within
May 6, 2026 7,220 – 7,298 ±39.0 7,364.91 🔴 Above
May 5, 2026 7,156 – 7,246 ±44.6 7,259.22 🔴 Above
May 4, 2026 7,180 – 7,281 ±50.5 7,200.95 ✅ Within
May 1, 2026 7,168 – 7,250 ±41.2 7,230.12 ✅ Within
Apr 30, 2026 7,071 – 7,201 ±65.0 7,209.01 🔴 Above
Apr 29, 2026 7,097 – 7,180 ±41.4 7,135.98 ✅ Within
Apr 28, 2026 7,134 – 7,214 ±39.8 7,138.80 ✅ Within
Apr 27, 2026 7,107 – 7,224 ±58.5 7,173.91 ✅ Within
Apr 24, 2026 -41 – 55 ±48.0 7,165.08 ✅ Within
Apr 23, 2026 7,095 – 7,181 ±42.9 7.00 ✅ Within
Apr 22, 2026 7,012 – 7,116 ±52.1 7,137.90 🔴 Above
Apr 21, 2026 7,064 – 7,155 ±45.4 7,064.01 ✅ Within
Apr 20, 2026 7,074 – 7,178 ±51.7 7,109.17 ✅ Within
Apr 17, 2026 7,009 – 7,074 ±32.3 7,126.06 🔴 Above
Apr 16, 2026 6,978 – 7,068 ±45.2 7,041.28 ✅ Within
Apr 15, 2026 6,924 – 7,011 ±43.7 7,022.95 🔴 Above
Today's SPX Expected Move →