SPX Expected Move History & Accuracy
459
Sessions Tracked
62.5%
Closed Within EM
±49.3
Avg Daily EM (pts)
293.01 pts
Largest Breach
Apr 9, 2025
Apr 9, 2025
How accurate is the expected move? This table tracks the last 40 daily SPX expected moves against the actual close. A session is "within EM" when the close stays between the upper and lower bounds.
← See today's SPX expected move
| Session Date | EM Range | ± Points | Actual Close | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | 7,725 – 7,806 | ±40.4 | 7,811.54 | 🔴 Above |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 7,768 – 7,835 | ±33.7 | 7,765.47 | 🔴 Below |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 7,783 – 7,855 | ±35.9 | 7,801.77 | ✅ Within |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 7,738 – 7,810 | ±35.8 | 7,818.93 | ✅ Within |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 7,680 – 7,765 | ±42.5 | 7,774.06 | 🔴 Above |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 7,614 – 7,719 | ±52.3 | 7,722.78 | 🔴 Above |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 7,604 – 7,699 | ±47.2 | 7,666.45 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 7,626 – 7,717 | ±45.5 | 7,651.54 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 7,640 – 7,728 | ±44.3 | 7,671.18 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 7,696 – 7,791 | ±47.3 | 7,683.93 | 🔴 Below |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 7,658 – 7,751 | ±46.3 | 7,743.51 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 7,665 – 7,747 | ±40.7 | 7,704.23 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 7,731 – 7,799 | ±33.9 | 7,706.03 | 🔴 Below |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 7,726 – 7,803 | ±38.7 | 7,764.64 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 7,609 – 7,692 | ±41.9 | 7,764.76 | 🔴 Above |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 7,587 – 7,689 | ±50.7 | 7,650.50 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 7,489 – 7,616 | ±63.5 | 7,637.76 | 🔴 Above |
| Sep 16, 2026 | 7,520 – 7,652 | ±66.0 | 7,552.25 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 7,575 – 7,665 | ±45.1 | 7,586.03 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 7,610 – 7,704 | ±46.9 | 7,619.96 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 11, 2026 | 7,525 – 7,658 | ±66.4 | 7,656.98 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 7,593 – 7,679 | ±43.1 | 7,591.75 | 🔴 Below |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 7,635 – 7,713 | ±39.0 | 7,636.36 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 8, 2026 | 7,670 – 7,767 | ±48.3 | 7,673.52 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 4, 2026 | 7,706 – 7,790 | ±42.0 | 7,718.60 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 7,627 – 7,707 | ±39.9 | 7,747.71 | 🔴 Above |
| Sep 2, 2026 | 7,590 – 7,673 | ±41.3 | 7,666.60 | ✅ Within |
| Sep 1, 2026 | 7,652 – 7,721 | ±34.2 | 7,631.47 | 🔴 Below |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 7,674 – 7,749 | ±37.3 | 7,686.38 | ✅ Within |
| Aug 28, 2026 | 7,687 – 7,775 | ±44.1 | 7,711.48 | ✅ Within |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 7,634 – 7,717 | ±41.4 | 7,730.79 | 🔴 Above |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 7,647 – 7,708 | ±30.8 | 7,675.70 | ✅ Within |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 7,619 – 7,686 | ±33.5 | 7,677.28 | ✅ Within |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 7,636 – 7,713 | ±38.2 | 7,652.86 | ✅ Within |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 7,595 – 7,688 | ±46.6 | 7,674.37 | ✅ Within |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 7,671 – 7,745 | ±37.1 | 7,641.16 | 🔴 Below |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 7,654 – 7,730 | ±37.5 | 7,708.35 | ✅ Within |
| Aug 18, 2026 | 7,713 – 7,777 | ±32.2 | 7,691.97 | 🔴 Below |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 7,750 – 7,821 | ±35.3 | 7,745.06 | 🔴 Below |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 7,763 – 7,835 | ±36.1 | 7,785.76 | ✅ Within |