The Energy Secretary And The Ship Count Disagree

Energy Secretary Chris Wright: nearly 9 million barrels of oil a day now moving through the Strait of Hormuz; roughly 15 million barrels daily including pipelines. Trump, Aug 10: "The Strait is open now," "US is the only one that has control of Hormuz," "US has mineswept the entire Strait." Against that, from the same government and the same week: EIA raises 2026 Brent forecast to $87/bbl from $82, lifts its US gasoline estimate to $3.78/gal, and expects Mideast crude disruptions of about 600k bpd to continue through end-2027. EIA also reports eight vessels crossed the strait Monday versus roughly 120 pre-war.

This is the crude leg's cleanest test and it does not require picking a side — the physical series settles it. Aramco's Nasser put flows at roughly a tenth of pre-conflict levels and estimated up to 18 months at 2.1M bpd to replenish depleted inventories even if the strait opened immediately. Kpler counted nine crossings on a recent Sunday, two of them tankers. ADNOC disclosed fifteen of its vessels attacked since the conflict began, three in a single week. US imports of Saudi crude ran zero for July, the first full month since 1985. The SPR is at 298.7M barrels, lowest since January 1983, on nineteen consecutive weekly draws. Note the internal contradiction rather than the political one: an administration claiming the strait is open and swept does not simultaneously publish a forecast raising crude $5 and extending the disruption another eighteen months. One of those is a statement and the other is a model with a number attached. The pipeline arithmetic constrains it further — Saudi Petroline and UAE ADCOP together offer 3.5-5.5M bpd of bypass capacity per the IEA, against 20M bpd of normal transit, and Petroline's Yanbu loading infrastructure was never expanded to match the pipe. Wright's 15M "including pipelines" requires roughly triple the bypass capacity that physically exists. Four Iranian officials in four days have stated the Iran-Oman corridor negotiation is not the reopening: the IRGC spokesman said reopening hinges on the US fully accepting Iran's terms and is "unrelated to talks between Iran and Oman." Oil settled up 5% Monday on compensation demands escalating, then round-tripped twice Tuesday on third-party characterizations of talks Iran says are not occurring.