SPX Expected Move Results — 2025

52 weeks tracked · 71% weekly hit rate · 35% daily hit rate

WEEKLY EM HIT RATE

71%

37 of 52 weeks touched EM

DAILY EM HIT RATE

35%

88 of 250 sessions matched or exceeded EM

TOTAL WEEKS TRACKED

trading weeks in 2025

How to read this table. Each row is one quarter of 2025. Weekly hit — percentage of weeks that touched the pre-open EM band at any point (intraday high or low crossed the band edge). Daily hit — percentage of trading days whose absolute close-to-close move was at least as large as the previous session's daily EM. Avg wkly / daily EM and avg move are the mean of the quarter's per-row values, in SPX points.

Quarterly Breakdown — 2025

Quarter	Weeks	Weekly Hit	Avg Wkly EM	Avg Wkly Move	Daily Hit	Avg Daily EM	Avg Daily Move
Q1	13	92%	108.81	95.37	43%	48.76	48.68
Q2	13	62%	146.95	140.85	32%	65.26	61.55
Q3	13	62%	90.79	63.29	30%	35.59	28.21
Q4	13	69%	116.03	92.66	36%	45.09	40.53

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