⏳ Year in progress — results update as SPX prints new closes. This page will finalize (and become indexable) after the last trading day of 2026.

SPX Expected Move Results — 2026

29 weeks tracked · 62% weekly hit rate · 40% daily hit rate

WEEKLY EM HIT RATE

62%

18 of 29 weeks touched EM

DAILY EM HIT RATE

40%

54 of 136 sessions matched or exceeded EM

TOTAL WEEKS TRACKED

trading weeks in 2026

How to read this table. Each row is one quarter of 2026. Weekly hit — percentage of weeks that touched the pre-open EM band at any point (intraday high or low crossed the band edge). Daily hit — percentage of trading days whose absolute close-to-close move was at least as large as the previous session's daily EM. Avg wkly / daily EM and avg move are the mean of the quarter's per-row values, in SPX points.

Quarterly Breakdown — 2026

Quarter	Weeks	Weekly Hit	Avg Wkly EM	Avg Wkly Move	Daily Hit	Avg Daily EM	Avg Daily Move
Q1	13	54%	142.57	74.90	33%	56.47	46.78
Q2	13	69%	127.41	121.41	45%	53.39	281.73
Q3	3	67%	107.54	105.10	46%	46.31	37.39
Q4	0	0%	0.00	0.00	0%	0.00	0.00

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