⏳ Year in progress — results update as SPX prints new closes. This page will finalize (and become indexable) after the last trading day of 2026.

SPX Expected Move Results — 2026

42 weeks tracked · 69% weekly hit rate · 40% daily hit rate

WEEKLY EM HIT RATE

69%

29 of 42 weeks touched EM

DAILY EM HIT RATE

40%

80 of 200 sessions matched or exceeded EM

TOTAL WEEKS TRACKED

trading weeks in 2026

How to read this table. Each row is one quarter of 2026. Weekly hit — percentage of weeks that touched the pre-open EM band at any point (intraday high or low crossed the band edge). Daily hit — percentage of trading days whose absolute close-to-close move was at least as large as the previous session's daily EM. Avg wkly / daily EM and avg move are the mean of the quarter's per-row values, in SPX points.

Quarterly Breakdown — 2026

Quarter	Weeks	Weekly Hit	Avg Wkly EM	Avg Wkly Move	Daily Hit	Avg Daily EM	Avg Daily Move
Q1	13	54%	142.57	74.90	33%	56.47	46.78
Q2	13	77%	127.41	121.41	44%	53.39	48.90
Q3	13	77%	105.88	78.87	41%	44.83	41.51
Q4	3	67%	119.21	120.43	54%	45.15	40.48

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