DAITA Earnings Expected Move Results — Q4 2025
73 earnings tracked · 50% HOT hit rate · published before market open
HOT DELIVERED
50%
6 of 12 · +12 pts vs baseline
WARM DELIVERED
60%
15 of 25 · +22 pts vs baseline
COLD STAYED UNDER
72%
26 of 36 stayed within EM
MARKET BASELINE
38%
of all tracked names exceeded EM
TOTAL TRACKED
73
completed earnings in Q4 2025
All Tracked Earnings — Q4 2025
| Ticker | Date | Badge | Expected Move | Actual Move | EM Band | Exceeded EM | Delivered |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | 10/09 | COLD | $5.31 | $5.87 | 1.11x | Yes | ✗ |
| DAL | 10/09 | COLD | $4.16 | $2.45 | 0.59x | No | ✓ |
| JPM | 10/14 | COLD | $11.32 | $5.89 | 0.52x | No | ✓ |
| C | 10/14 | COLD | $4.56 | $3.74 | 0.82x | No | ✓ |
| UAL | 10/15 | WARM | $7.33 | $5.86 | 0.80x | No | ✓ |
| ASML | 10/15 | HOT | $76.37 | $26.63 | 0.35x | No | ✗ |
| SCHW | 10/16 | COLD | $4.86 | $0.92 | 0.19x | No | ✓ |
| TSM | 10/16 | COLD | $16.46 | $4.87 | 0.30x | No | ✓ |
| AXP | 10/17 | COLD | $12.71 | $23.50 | 1.85x | Yes | ✗ |
| NFLX | 10/21 | HOT | $88.31 | $124.98 | 1.42x | Yes | ✓ |
| TSLA | 10/22 | HOT | $31.22 | $10.01 | 0.32x | No | ✗ |
| LVS | 10/22 | COLD | $3.00 | $6.27 | 2.09x | Yes | ✗ |
| LRCX | 10/22 | COLD | $9.12 | $6.29 | 0.69x | No | ✓ |
| DECK | 10/23 | WARM | $11.79 | $15.60 | 1.32x | Yes | ✓ |
| NEM | 10/23 | WARM | $4.94 | $5.54 | 1.12x | Yes | ✓ |
| HON | 10/23 | WARM | $9.01 | $14.06 | 1.56x | Yes | ✓ |
| BX | 10/23 | WARM | $7.40 | $6.74 | 0.91x | No | ✓ |
| CAR | 10/27 | COLD | $14.44 | $9.41 | 0.65x | No | ✓ |
| ENPH | 10/28 | WARM | $4.90 | $5.56 | 1.13x | Yes | ✓ |
| RCL | 10/28 | WARM | $24.26 | $27.31 | 1.13x | Yes | ✓ |
| UNH | 10/28 | HOT | $24.07 | $1.86 | 0.08x | No | ✗ |
| V | 10/28 | COLD | $12.60 | $5.62 | 0.45x | No | ✓ |
| UPS | 10/28 | HOT | $6.72 | $7.14 | 1.06x | Yes | ✓ |
| PYPL | 10/28 | WARM | $6.23 | $2.75 | 0.44x | No | ✗ |
| MSFT | 10/29 | WARM | $27.97 | $15.79 | 0.56x | No | ✗ |
| CAT | 10/29 | WARM | $26.22 | $61.02 | 2.33x | Yes | ✓ |
| GOOGL | 10/29 | WARM | $18.21 | $6.91 | 0.38x | No | ✗ |
| META | 10/29 | HOT | $50.84 | $85.20 | 1.68x | Yes | ✓ |
| CVNA | 10/29 | COLD | $49.94 | $48.88 | 0.98x | No | ✓ |
| AAPL | 10/30 | COLD | $9.15 | $1.03 | 0.11x | No | ✓ |
| EL | 10/30 | WARM | $9.46 | $0.25 | 0.03x | No | ✗ |
| AMZN | 10/30 | WARM | $15.36 | $21.36 | 1.39x | Yes | ✓ |
| ROKU | 10/30 | WARM | $13.43 | $6.10 | 0.45x | No | ✗ |
| FSLR | 10/30 | COLD | $17.04 | $33.36 | 1.96x | Yes | ✗ |
| NET | 10/30 | WARM | $25.79 | $30.80 | 1.19x | Yes | ✓ |
| RDDT | 10/30 | COLD | $28.14 | $14.53 | 0.52x | No | ✓ |
| COIN | 10/30 | COLD | $23.74 | $15.27 | 0.64x | No | ✓ |
| MSTR | 10/30 | COLD | $15.56 | $14.94 | 0.96x | No | ✓ |
| XOM | 10/31 | WARM | $2.65 | $0.33 | 0.12x | No | ✗ |
| AMD | 11/4 | COLD | $19.09 | $3.47 | 0.18x | No | ✓ |
| SMCI | 11/4 | COLD | $5.64 | $6.35 | 1.13x | Yes | ✗ |
| SHOP | 11/4 | WARM | $20.22 | $12.00 | 0.59x | No | ✗ |
| PFE | 11/4 | COLD | $1.24 | $0.36 | 0.29x | No | ✓ |
| ALAB | 11/4 | COLD | $26.38 | $1.47 | 0.06x | No | ✓ |
| TEM | 11/4 | COLD | $9.71 | $4.08 | 0.42x | No | ✓ |
| MCD | 11/5 | COLD | $9.28 | $7.13 | 0.77x | No | ✓ |
| ELF | 11/5 | WARM | $15.46 | $41.29 | 2.67x | Yes | ✓ |
| HOOD | 11/5 | COLD | $11.55 | $15.40 | 1.33x | Yes | ✗ |
| APP | 11/5 | COLD | $67.09 | $4.31 | 0.06x | No | ✓ |
| WYNN | 11/6 | COLD | $8.37 | $3.60 | 0.43x | No | ✓ |
| ABNB | 11/6 | COLD | $10.42 | $0.35 | 0.03x | No | ✓ |
| DDOG | 11/6 | COLD | $16.48 | $35.84 | 2.17x | Yes | ✗ |
| BIDU | 11/18 | COLD | $8.35 | $3.03 | 0.36x | No | ✓ |
| PANW | 11/19 | COLD | $13.89 | $14.83 | 1.07x | Yes | ✗ |
| NVDA | 11/19 | COLD | $13.85 | $5.88 | 0.42x | No | ✓ |
| TGT | 11/19 | HOT | $8.26 | $2.45 | 0.30x | No | ✗ |
| ROST | 11/20 | COLD | $10.42 | $13.50 | 1.30x | Yes | ✗ |
| WMT | 11/20 | HOT | $4.95 | $6.50 | 1.31x | Yes | ✓ |
| ANF | 11/25 | WARM | $8.30 | $24.63 | 2.97x | Yes | ✓ |
| DELL | 11/25 | COLD | $10.62 | $7.28 | 0.69x | No | ✓ |
| DKS | 11/25 | WARM | $17.24 | $0.42 | 0.02x | No | ✗ |
| BABA | 11/25 | WARM | $11.09 | $3.71 | 0.33x | No | ✗ |
| MDB | 12/1 | HOT | $42.12 | $73.12 | 1.74x | Yes | ✓ |
| MRVL | 12/2 | COLD | $10.76 | $7.38 | 0.69x | No | ✓ |
| CRWD | 12/2 | COLD | $36.67 | $8.09 | 0.22x | No | ✓ |
| DLTR | 12/3 | HOT | $9.32 | $3.93 | 0.42x | No | ✗ |
| SNOW | 12/3 | HOT | $24.08 | $30.23 | 1.26x | Yes | ✓ |
| DG | 12/4 | WARM | $8.59 | $15.40 | 1.79x | Yes | ✓ |
| ULTA | 12/4 | WARM | $36.77 | $67.55 | 1.84x | Yes | ✓ |
| DOCU | 12/4 | WARM | $6.82 | $5.43 | 0.80x | No | ✓ |
| LULU | 12/11 | HOT | $21.04 | $17.96 | 0.85x | No | ✗ |
| COST | 12/11 | WARM | $28.96 | $0.18 | 0.01x | No | ✗ |
| AVGO | 12/11 | COLD | $28.30 | $46.44 | 1.64x | Yes | ✗ |
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